Labour’s latest announcement on deporting foreign national offenders is being sold as proof that the government is finally getting serious about borders, prisons, and public safety. Look past the press release, however, and the reality is far less impressive - it is a Wizard of Oz Policy
This is not a tough new policy. It is a carefully worded illusion — one that avoids the single decision that would actually restore control.
You Can’t Control Deportations While Trapped in the ECHR
The government claims it will deport foreign national offenders directly from prisons, with those who have had human-rights appeals rejected being “offshored” while any further appeals are heard from abroad.
But here’s the problem: until Britain leaves the European Convention on Human Rights, nothing fundamental changes.
The ECHR is the mechanism that repeatedly blocks deportations, delays removals for years, and allows endless legal challenges — even for serious criminals. Labour has made it clear it will never leave the ECHR. That single fact renders this entire policy meaningless.
A government that refuses to change the legal framework cannot credibly claim it is “taking back control”. Labour won’t deport foreign criminals — and they certainly don’t want to deport illegal migrants. This is a weak government, paralysed by its own ideology.
The Foreign National Offender Crisis Will Continue
Labour’s policy also fails on basic arithmetic.
Foreign national offenders now make up 12% of the prison population — the highest level on record. Yet the scheme only applies to a limited list of nationalities, including Finland, Nigeria, Estonia, Albania, Belize, Mauritius, Tanzania, Kosovo, Angola, Australia, Botswana, Brunei, Bulgaria, Canada, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Latvia, Lebanon, Malaysia, Uganda and Zambia.
This list bears little resemblance to the reality inside British prisons.
After British nationals, the most common nationalities in prison are:
Albanian (11%)
Polish (7%)
Romanian (7%)
Irish (7%)
Lithuanian (3%)
In other words, Labour’s policy barely touches the core of the problem. It is a selective scheme aimed at producing headlines — not results.
A Minuscule Impact on Small Boat Crossings
The government also claims this policy will deter illegal migration by allowing failed human-rights claimants to be removed before they can appeal from within the UK.
Again, the numbers tell a different story.
Since 2018, 147,820 people have crossed the Channel illegally by small boat. Of those, just 2,449 people would fall within the scope of this new policy.
That’s around 1.6%.
Even if the scheme worked perfectly — which it won’t — it would make virtually no difference to the scale of illegal crossings. No smuggler, no migrant, and no criminal gang is going to be deterred by a policy that affects fewer than two in every hundred arrivals.
The Maths Simply Doesn’t Work
The policy collapses entirely when you look at the flow of arrivals.
Around 1,300 people arrive illegally every week. The government suggests it might manage around 50 removals per week under this scheme.
That means:
For every one person removed, 16 more arrive
The backlog grows, not shrinks
Prison pressure increases
Public confidence continues to erode
This is not border control. It is managed decline.
Reform, Not Rhetoric
Britain doesn’t have a deportation problem because the rules are unclear. It has a deportation problem because successive governments — including this one — refuse to make hard choices.
As long as Labour remains committed to the ECHR, open-ended appeals, and legal obstructionism, no announcement will change the outcome. The public can see through it.
The British people want firm borders, swift removals, and a justice system that prioritises citizens — not endless process. This policy delivers none of that.
It doesn’t add up. It doesn’t deter. And it doesn’t deport.